Whom We Trust, What We Fear: COVID-19 Fear and the Politics of Information

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered not only a global health crisis but also an infodemic, an overload of information from diverse sources influencing public perception and emotional responses. In this context, fear emerged as a central emotional reaction, shaped by both media exposure and demographic factors. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between individuals' self-reported levels of fear about COVID-19 and the information sources they rely on, across nine source categories, including medical experts, government institutions, media, and personal networks. In particular, we defined a score that ranks fear levels based on self-reported concerns about the pandemic, collected through the Delphi CTIS survey in the United States between May 2021 and June 2022. We found that both fear levels and information source usage closely follow COVID-19 infection trends, exhibit strong correlations within each group (fear levels across sources are strongly correlated, as are patterns of source usage), and vary significantly across demographic groups, particularly by age and education. Applying causal inference methods, we found that among age, education, and information source, the latter is the most influential factor affecting individuals' fear levels. We further quantified the impact of different information sources on fear by estimating the average treatment effect, indicating how each source alters fear relative to a control. Furthermore, we demonstrated that information source preferences can reliably match the political orientation of U.S. states. These findings highlight the importance of information ecosystem dynamics in shaping emotional and behavioral responses during large-scale crises.