Ageing Drift in Binary Face Templates: A Bits-per-Decade Analysis

We study the longitudinal stability of compact binary face templates and quantify ageing drift directly in bits per decade. Float embeddings from a modern face CNN are compressed with PCA-ITQ into 64- and 128-bit codes. For each identity in AgeDB with at least three distinct ages, we form all genuine pairs and fit a per-identity linear model of Hamming distance versus absolute age gap. Across 566 identities, the median slope is 1.357 bits per decade for 64-bit templates and 2.571 bits per decade for 128-bit templates, with tight non-parametric 95 percent bootstrap confidence intervals. The distributions are predominantly positive, indicating a small but systematic increase in intra-class distance over time. Because drift scales with code length, shorter codes are inherently more age-stable at a fixed decision threshold. We connect these slopes to operating characteristics by reporting EER and TPR at FAR = 1 percent in three age bins. We discuss implications for smart-card and match-on-card deployments, including simple mitigations such as periodic re-enrolment and targeted parity on empirically unstable bit positions. Code and CSV artifacts are provided to support reproducibility.