Linking Opinion Dynamics and Emotional Expression in Online Communities: A Case Study of COVID-19 Vaccination Discourse in Japan

Social media discourse on COVID-19 vaccination provides a valuable context for studying opinion formation, emotional expression, and social influence during a global crisis. While prior studies have examined emotional strategies within communities and the link between emotions and vaccine hesitancy, few have investigated dynamic emotion changes across collective, community, and individual levels. In this study, we address this gap by conducting an integrated analysis of the evolving collective emotions, community affiliations, and individual emotion changes associated with opinion shifts. Our results show that collective emotions exhibit distinct trends in response to vaccination progress. Emotional compositions differ across communities and respond dynamically to changing pandemic circumstances, potentially reflecting the communities' influence on users' opinions. At the individual level, users shifting to pro-vaccine opinions display markedly different emotional changes compared to those shifting toward anti-vaccine opinions. Together, these findings highlight the central role of emotions in shaping users' vaccination opinions.