{"ID":6626542,"CreatedAt":"2026-07-15T02:56:36.47817413Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-07-15T03:28:55.185153975Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.13029","arxiv_id":"2607.13029","title":"Online Control via Counterfactual Tracking","abstract":"We develop a method for online control that competes with general classes of causal policies, beyond the linear-controller classes used by most existing algorithms. Over a horizon of \\(T\\) rounds, we consider a known linear dynamical system subject to adversarial disturbances and convex costs revealed after each action. The method simulates the benchmark policies on the revealed history, uses their counterfactual state--input pairs to form a moving reference, and applies a fixed stabilizing controller to track that reference on the physical system. We call this method \\emph{counterfactual tracking}. Counterfactual tracking applies to any measurable class of causal policies that can be simulated from the revealed history and whose counterfactual state--input pairs have bounded diameter at every round. The policies may be nonlinear or dynamic and need not share a parameterization. We establish PAC-Bayes regret guarantees that hold for every posterior over policies and depend on its relative entropy to a chosen prior. On a fixed plant with a tracker of bounded impulse-response gain, a finite class of \\(N\\) policies admits the minimax-optimal \\(\\sqrt{T\\log N}\\) dependence on \\(T\\) and \\(N\\) when \\(\\log N=O(T)\\). As a central application, we compete with a system-level response ball of stabilizing linear dynamical controllers. The ball bounds the summed impulse-response deviation from the fixed tracker, but imposes no common decay envelope, memory length, or controller-order bound. To our knowledge, this is the first online-control guarantee uniform over such a class. A matching lower bound shows that our guarantee is tight up to constants.","short_abstract":"We develop a method for online control that competes with general classes of causal policies, beyond the linear-controller classes used by most existing algorithms. Over a horizon of \\(T\\) rounds, we consider a known linear dynamical system subject to adversarial disturbances and convex costs revealed after each action...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.13029","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.13029v1","authors":"[\"Yunzong Xu\"]","published":"2026-07-14T17:59:06Z","proceeding":"math.OC","tasks":"[\"math.OC\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}