{"ID":6537616,"CreatedAt":"2026-07-14T02:54:43.516908796Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-07-15T03:28:55.185153975Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.11306","arxiv_id":"2607.11306","title":"Optimal Control of Pandemic Dynamics via Model Predictive Control: A Health-Economic Trade-off Analysis","abstract":"This paper addresses the optimal control of epidemic dynamics under conflicting socio-economic objectives. We propose an economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework, applied to an extended SEIR-V (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated) compartmental model to govern the spread of an infectious disease while minimizing economic disruption. The control problem is formulated as a constrained nonlinear optimization problem, in which the controller dynamically adjusts social interaction levels (transmission rate beta) and vaccination efforts to minimize a composite cost function that penalizes fatalities, healthcare capacity violations, and economic losses. We conduct a rigorous sensitivity analysis of the prediction horizon N, demonstrating that the closed loop is robust to the horizon choice and that N = 35 days minimizes the realized cost. Furthermore, both the closed-loop solution and an open-loop turnpike analysis across diverse initial conditions reveal that the celebrated \"Hammer and Dance\" mitigation strategy emerges naturally as the mathematical optimum: the optimal trajectories anchor to a unique suppression turnpike (maximum lockdown) to drive hospitalizations toward the disease-free equilibrium before progressively reopening the economy. Through a turnpike-based argument we establish practical asymptotic stability of the optimal operating point, providing a mathematically grounded decision-support tool for pandemic policy.","short_abstract":"This paper addresses the optimal control of epidemic dynamics under conflicting socio-economic objectives. We propose an economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework, applied to an extended SEIR-V (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated) compartmental model to govern the spread of an infectious disease...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.11306","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.11306v1","authors":"[\"Lokman Rachid Melhani\",\"Lars Grune\",\"Antonino Sferlazza\",\"Dominique Persano Adorno\",\"Filippo D'Ippolito\",\"Alberto Firenze\"]","published":"2026-07-13T09:20:59Z","proceeding":"math.OC","tasks":"[\"math.OC\",\"eess.SY\",\"q-bio.PE\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}