{"ID":6536137,"CreatedAt":"2026-07-14T01:21:01.169441415Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-07-15T03:28:55.185153975Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.10592","arxiv_id":"2607.10592","title":"Sharp Concentration Bounds for Bundle-Valued Statistics on Manifolds","abstract":"Many geometric statistics and manifold learning pipelines routinely produce observations -- such as tangent vectors or local frames -- whose natural home is a varying family of fibers attached to different points of a base manifold, rather than a single shared vector space. Forming empirical averages requires transporting these observations to a common reference fiber, thereby introducing curvature- and holonomy-driven effects that are absent from classical concentration theory. We develop a non-asymptotic concentration theory for such transported empirical means, deriving finite-sample, dimension-free Hoeffding- and Bernstein-type bounds via sharp Hilbert-space inequalities. When shortest paths to the reference point are non-unique, transport becomes path-dependent and introduces a deterministic holonomy bias; we isolate and quantify this bias through bundle curvature and loop geometry, with sharp closed-form formulas for the tangent bundle of a round sphere. The resulting bias-variance decomposition separates the stochastic fluctuation decaying at the classical $n^{-1/2}$ rate in sample size $n$, from a curvature-driven error floor that no amount of additional data can eliminate; minimax lower bounds confirm both terms are unavoidable. We further establish a robust median-of-means estimator achieving optimal rates under heavy tails and the central limit theorem in the reference fiber. Controlled experiments on the sphere validate all theoretical predictions.","short_abstract":"Many geometric statistics and manifold learning pipelines routinely produce observations -- such as tangent vectors or local frames -- whose natural home is a varying family of fibers attached to different points of a base manifold, rather than a single shared vector space. Forming empirical averages requires transport...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.10592","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.10592v1","authors":"[\"Swagatam Das\",\"Vaclav Snasel\"]","published":"2026-07-12T06:11:31Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}