{"ID":6267147,"CreatedAt":"2026-07-10T01:11:38.759438437Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-07-13T01:02:08.706470581Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.08349","arxiv_id":"2607.08349","title":"Certified Interventional Fidelity: Anytime-Valid, Adaptive Evaluation of Causal Claims in Mechanistic Interpretability","abstract":"Mechanistic interpretability often evaluates explanations by intervening on a model: swapping hidden states, patching activations, ablating components, or comparing a compressed model to the original one. These experiments are usually summarized by a point estimate, even though the evaluation may be monitored while it runs or adapted toward suspected failures. This makes it hard to tell whether a reported fidelity or patching effect is a stable causal claim or a consequence of finite sampling and evaluation choices. We introduce Certified Interventional Fidelity (CIF), a statistical layer for interventional interpretability evaluations. CIF first writes the quantity being reported as a causal estimand: an expectation of a bounded score over a stated input distribution and a stated intervention distribution. It then provides confidence intervals and anytime-valid confidence sequences for this estimand, including under adaptive intervention sampling via bounded mixture importance weighting. We instantiate CIF with Hoeffding-style sequences and variance-adaptive betting sequences, the latter reducing certification cost by 10-30x in our experiments. On MNIST abstractions and GPT-2 Small IOI circuits, CIF certifies high-fidelity claims, shows when apparent method differences are not statistically supported, and makes sensitivity to the intervention distribution explicit.","short_abstract":"Mechanistic interpretability often evaluates explanations by intervening on a model: swapping hidden states, patching activations, ablating components, or comparing a compressed model to the original one. These experiments are usually summarized by a point estimate, even though the evaluation may be monitored while it...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.08349","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.08349v1","authors":"[\"Amir Asiaee\"]","published":"2026-07-09T10:55:04Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}