{"ID":5935885,"CreatedAt":"2026-07-07T01:22:02.77346169Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-07-07T02:10:06.972658124Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03015","arxiv_id":"2607.03015","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","abstract":"Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability scores and the trading results. We propose Raven-Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first autonomous trading agent for prediction markets. On a controlled replay over an archived decision set, our architecture achieves the only positive return and the only positive risk-adjusted return among all tested policies. We have released our code in https://github.com/Alchemist-X/predict-raven .","short_abstract":"Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03015","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.03015v1","authors":"[\"Yishu Wang\",\"Yuxuan Wang\",\"Jiaqi Deng\",\"Hanyang Tang\"]","published":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","proceeding":"cs.AI","tasks":"[\"cs.AI\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false,"code_links":[{"ID":613940,"CreatedAt":"2026-07-07T01:22:02.77346169Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-07-07T01:22:02.77346169Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_id":5935885,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03015","paper_title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","repo_url":"https://github.com/Alchemist-X/predict-raven","is_official":false,"mentioned_in_paper":false,"mentioned_in_github":true,"github_stars":0}]}