{"ID":5439482,"CreatedAt":"2026-07-01T01:17:58.482524686Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-07-02T19:06:01.127452785Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.30842","arxiv_id":"2606.30842","title":"A Transferable Learned Temporal Prior for Transmission Reconstruction and Decision-Relevant Uncertainty in Real Outbreak Labels","abstract":"Outbreak transmission reconstruction treats epidemiological timing and transmission labels as deterministic ground truth; neither has been systematically evaluated. We trained a logistic regression temporal prior on eleven disease families, locked all parameters before accessing any target outbreak data, and applied it without refitting to a strict Andes virus (ANDV) parent-ranking benchmark of 29 tasks. The locked prior achieved mean reciprocal rank (MRR) 0.571 versus 0.274 and Top-1 accuracy 37.9% versus 13.8% against the best source-trained parametric baseline (permutation p \u003c= 0.0002; 7-8 reversals to lose MRR significance). A phylogenetic concordance audit of 75 NYC mpox inter-host pairs - independent label-reliability evidence rather than a prior validation - found that 54.67% (exact 95% CI: 42.75-66.21%) were genomically unresolved or unsupported. Retaining uncertain edges in ANDV and Guangdong Delta graphs shifted top-5 source-priority sets (Jaccard 0.429-0.667). Transmission-label uncertainty was measurable in the outbreak evidence modules examined, and retaining uncertain links changed which source cases were prioritized for intervention.","short_abstract":"Outbreak transmission reconstruction treats epidemiological timing and transmission labels as deterministic ground truth; neither has been systematically evaluated. We trained a logistic regression temporal prior on eleven disease families, locked all parameters before accessing any target outbreak data, and applied it...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.30842","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.30842v1","authors":"[\"Md Ahsan Karim\"]","published":"2026-06-29T19:19:52Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\",\"q-bio.QM\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}