{"ID":3049948,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-04T02:13:16.786527022Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-06T15:44:26.945507316Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05042","arxiv_id":"2606.05042","title":"In-Context Graphical Inference","abstract":"Marginal inference in discrete graphical models forces a choice between exactness and scalability: exact algorithms are intractable for high-treewidth graphs, while iterative approximations (Belief Propagation, variational methods) sacrifice convergence guarantees on frustrated topologies. We argue that this dichotomy stems from a mismatched inductive bias: iterative methods abandon the sequential elimination structure that makes exact inference correct. We introduce In-Context Graphical Inference (ICG-I), an autoregressive Graph Transformer that restores this structure by mimicking Variable Elimination with learned, Tensor- Train-compressed intermediate factors, paired with a Dirichlet output layer and Weighted Conformal Prediction for calibrated, distribution-free coverage guarantees under topological shift. We prove that TT compression errors propagate at most lincarly through the autoregressive chain, that the Dirichlet-Multinomial loss is a proper scoring rule, and that WCP maintains coverage with a quantifiable degradation under estimated density ratios. We conducted intensive experiments to evaluate ICG-I and achieved state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks. ICG-I reduces MAE from 0.041 (best baseline) to 0.020 on standard instances and achieves 0.048 on N=500 frustrated spin glasses where BP diverges entirely.","short_abstract":"Marginal inference in discrete graphical models forces a choice between exactness and scalability: exact algorithms are intractable for high-treewidth graphs, while iterative approximations (Belief Propagation, variational methods) sacrifice convergence guarantees on frustrated topologies. We argue that this dichotomy...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05042","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.05042v1","authors":"[\"Zehua Cheng\",\"Wei Dai\",\"Jiahao Sun\"]","published":"2026-06-03T16:04:00Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\",\"cs.CL\",\"cs.SC\"]","methods":"[\"Transformer\"]","has_code":false}