{"ID":2922198,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-02T02:42:49.606572591Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-02T21:14:49.797962054Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.00896","arxiv_id":"2606.00896","title":"When Shortages Lead to Export Restrictions: A Computational Study","abstract":"Globalization has enabled companies to leverage cost efficiencies; however, it has increased exposure to disruption risks that threaten supply stability. Among these, export bans have emerged as a systemic challenge, often arising as a secondary effect of conventional supply capacity disruptions. The pharmaceutical industry is particularly vulnerable to bans because of the criticality of keeping life-saving medications available, yet such disruptions also jeopardize patient health globally as well as challenge company operations. This paper proposes a supply chain design model that incorporates the relationship between conventional disruption risks (quality-related capacity failures and natural disasters) and export bans that may be induced when the drug is projected to be in short supply. The model is a two-stage stochastic mixed integer program, where the systemic setting yields a second-stage problem with one binary variable and continuous variables. The structure motivates the study of three tailored solution methods: the Alternating Integer L-shaped Cut, Alternating Disjunctive Cut, and Alternating Bilinear Cut methods. In the nearly-continuous second stage context, the Alternating Integer L-shaped cuts perform best. Using an oncology drug case study, we study effects of systemic, induced risk and quantify the value of incorporating disruptions into supply chain design.","short_abstract":"Globalization has enabled companies to leverage cost efficiencies; however, it has increased exposure to disruption risks that threaten supply stability. Among these, export bans have emerged as a systemic challenge, often arising as a secondary effect of conventional supply capacity disruptions. The pharmaceutical ind...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.00896","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.00896v1","authors":"[\"Martha L. Sabogal De La Pava\",\"Emily L. Tucker\",\"Yongjia Song\"]","published":"2026-05-30T21:17:16Z","proceeding":"math.OC","tasks":"[\"math.OC\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}