{"ID":2921201,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-02T02:42:49.606572591Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-04T00:54:56.190393508Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.01661","arxiv_id":"2606.01661","title":"Feature leakage and the identifiability of direct-dependency entropy models of neural activity","abstract":"Biological neurons receive thousands of synaptic inputs on branching, electrically excitable dendrites, yet population activity is often modeled with direct input-output rules in which each input contributes independently to a scalar drive. We study what successful prediction by such models does, and does not, reveal about neural computation. For conditional maximum-entropy models that match output rates and pairwise output-input coactivities, the entropy explained by a direct model is a prediction measure under the sampled input distribution, not a mechanism-identification test. A restricted MaxEnt fit is an information projection: omitted interaction, temporal, or hidden-state terms can be absorbed into fitted first-order parameters whenever they are correlated with the included sufficient statistics. For sparse correlated binary inputs, this absorption has an explicit coskewness form. We introduce diagnostics that separate in-distribution prediction from recovery of the response rule: state reweighting that holds P(y|x) fixed while changing P(x), conditional log-odds contrasts for local additivity, and temporal leakage controls. In ground-truth simulations, purely higher-order responses can pass first-order entropy and raw coactivity tests under leakage-prone sampling, but are correctly classified after reweighting. Applied to selected, leakage-enriched local tables from CA1 hippocampal recordings, approximately half of tables that appear first-order under empirical weights become distribution-sensitive under balanced reweighting, far above a matched additive-surrogate null. Thus direct entropy-explained fractions and raw coactivity predictions should be interpreted as predictions under the observed state distribution, not as evidence that mechanisms outside the direct model are absent or small.","short_abstract":"Biological neurons receive thousands of synaptic inputs on branching, electrically excitable dendrites, yet population activity is often modeled with direct input-output rules in which each input contributes independently to a scalar drive. We study what successful prediction by such models does, and does not, reveal a...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.01661","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.01661v1","authors":"[\"Houman Safaai\",\"Bernardo L. Sabatini\"]","published":"2026-06-01T04:15:49Z","proceeding":"q-bio.NC","tasks":"[\"q-bio.NC\",\"q-bio.QM\",\"stat.ME\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}