{"ID":2920976,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-02T02:42:49.606572591Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-04T07:41:34.29888543Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02038","arxiv_id":"2606.02038","title":"Uncertainty-Aware Graph Neural Reconstruction of Urban Temperature Fields from Sparse Sensors under Deployment Constraints","abstract":"Reconstructing spatially continuous daily temperature fields from sparse observations is important for urban climate monitoring and heat-risk analysis, but practical deployments are limited by sensor budgets and spacing constraints. This study proposes an uncertainty-aware graph neural network (GNN) framework for reconstructing daily maximum temperature fields from sparse sensors while supporting distance-constrained sensor placement and probabilistic exceedance mapping. The model predicts both the temperature field and a spatially varying predictive uncertainty field using a graph-attention-based mean-residual architecture trained with a Gaussian negative log-likelihood. Sensor placement is addressed using a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition with QR factorization (POD-QR) strategy with a 4 km minimum inter-sensor distance constraint and is compared with random feasible placement and farthest-point sampling. The framework is evaluated over a Montreal-area polygon using Daymet v4.1 daily temperature data (1 km resolution) under a strict temporal hold-out protocol (training: 2020-2023; testing: 2024). Across sensor budgets (10-40 sensors), the proposed GNN consistently outperforms inverse distance weighting and ordinary kriging in RMSE and MAE on unobserved nodes. Sensor-placement effects are most pronounced at low budgets and diminish at higher budgets, with a practical saturation regime emerging around 30 sensors under the imposed spacing constraint. Probabilistic evaluation further shows improved uncertainty calibration with increasing sensor density and a better sharpness-calibration trade-off than kriging. These results support the proposed framework as an effective tool for uncertainty-aware temperature field reconstruction and decision-oriented heat-risk mapping.","short_abstract":"Reconstructing spatially continuous daily temperature fields from sparse observations is important for urban climate monitoring and heat-risk analysis, but practical deployments are limited by sensor budgets and spacing constraints. This study proposes an uncertainty-aware graph neural network (GNN) framework for recon...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02038","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.02038v1","authors":"[\"Reda Snaiki\",\"Abdelatif Merabtine\"]","published":"2026-06-01T10:28:23Z","proceeding":"physics.app-ph","tasks":"[\"physics.app-ph\",\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[\"Graph Neural Network\"]","has_code":false}