{"ID":2898004,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.04562","arxiv_id":"2507.04562","title":"Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Forecasting Against Expert Forecasters","abstract":"Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, but their ability to forecast future events remains understudied. A year ago, large language models struggle to come close to the accuracy of a human crowd. I evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs on 464 forecasting questions from Metaculus, comparing their performance against top forecasters. Frontier models achieve Brier scores that ostensibly surpass the human crowd but still significantly underperform a group of experts.","short_abstract":"Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, but their ability to forecast future events remains understudied. A year ago, large language models struggle to come close to the accuracy of a human crowd. I evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs on 464 forecasting questions from Met...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.04562","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.04562v3","authors":"[\"Janna Lu\"]","published":"2025-07-06T22:26:59Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\",\"cs.AI\",\"cs.CL\"]","methods":"[\"Large Language Model\",\"Language Model\"]","has_code":false}