{"ID":2888758,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.22577","arxiv_id":"2507.22577","title":"A Mean-Field Theory of $Θ$-Expectations","abstract":"The canonical theory of sublinear expectations, a foundation of stochastic calculus under ambiguity, is insensitive to the non-convex geometry of primitive uncertainty models. This paper develops a new stochastic calculus for a structured class of such non-convex models. We introduce a class of fully coupled Mean-Field Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations where the BSDE driver is defined by a pointwise maximization over a law-dependent, non-convex set. Mathematical tractability is achieved via a uniform strong concavity assumption on the driver with respect to the control variable, which ensures the optimization admits a unique and stable solution. A central contribution is to establish the Lipschitz stability of this optimizer from primitive geometric and regularity conditions, which underpins the entire well-posedness theory. We prove local and global well-posedness theorems for the FBSDE system. The resulting valuation functional, the $Θ$-Expectation, is shown to be dynamically consistent and, most critically, to violate the axiom of sub-additivity. This, along with its failure to be translation invariant, demonstrates its fundamental departure from the convex paradigm. This work provides a rigorous foundation for stochastic calculus under a class of non-convex, endogenous ambiguity.","short_abstract":"The canonical theory of sublinear expectations, a foundation of stochastic calculus under ambiguity, is insensitive to the non-convex geometry of primitive uncertainty models. This paper develops a new stochastic calculus for a structured class of such non-convex models. We introduce a class of fully coupled Mean-Field...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.22577","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.22577v1","authors":"[\"Qian Qi\"]","published":"2025-07-30T11:08:56Z","proceeding":"math.PR","tasks":"[\"math.PR\",\"cs.AI\",\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}