{"ID":2885096,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.05163","arxiv_id":"2508.05163","title":"Preparing for the worst: Long-term and short-term weather extremes in resource adequacy assessment","abstract":"Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond the meteorological root cause. We use an approach based on shadow prices to identify periods of elevated stress called system-defining events and analyse their impact on the power system. By classifying different types of system-defining events, we identify challenges to power system operation and planning. Crucially, we find the need for sufficient resilience back-up (power) capacities whose financial viability is precarious due to weather variability. Furthermore, we disentangle short- and long-term resilience challenges with distinct metrics and stress tests to incorporate both into future energy modelling assessments. Our methodology and implementation in the open model PyPSA-Eur can be re-applied to other systems and help researchers and policymakers in building more resilient and adequate energy systems.","short_abstract":"Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond the meteorological root cause. We use an approach based on shadow prices to identi...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.05163","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.05163v1","authors":"[\"Aleksander Grochowicz\",\"Hannah C. Bloomfield\",\"Marta Victoria\"]","published":"2025-08-07T08:53:02Z","proceeding":"eess.SY","tasks":"[\"eess.SY\",\"math.OC\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}