{"ID":2884461,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.11682","arxiv_id":"2508.11682","title":"Age-Normalized HRV Features for Non-Invasive Glucose Prediction: A Pilot Sleep-Aware Machine Learning Study","abstract":"Non-invasive glucose monitoring remains a critical challenge in the management of diabetes. HRV during sleep shows promise for glucose prediction however, age-related autonomic changes significantly confound traditional HRV analyses. We analyzed 43 subjects with multi-modal data including sleep-stage specific ECG, HRV features, and clinical measurements. A novel age-normalization technique was applied to the HRV features by, dividing the raw values by age-scaled factors. BayesianRidge regression with 5-fold cross-validation was employed for log-glucose prediction. Age-normalized HRV features achieved R2 = 0.161 (MAE = 0.182) for log-glucose prediction, representing a 25.6% improvement over non-normalized features (R2 = 0.132). The top predictive features were hrv rem mean rr age normalized (r = 0.443, p = 0.004), hrv ds mean rr age normalized (r = 0.438, p = 0.005), and diastolic blood pressure (r = 0.437, p = 0.005). Systematic ablation studies confirmed age-normalization as the critical component, with sleep-stage specific features providing additional predictive value. Age-normalized HRV features significantly enhance glucose prediction accuracy compared with traditional approaches. This sleep-aware methodology addresses fundamental limitations in autonomic function assessment and suggests a preliminary feasibility for non-invasive glucose monitoring applications. However, these results require validation in larger cohorts before clinical consideration.","short_abstract":"Non-invasive glucose monitoring remains a critical challenge in the management of diabetes. HRV during sleep shows promise for glucose prediction however, age-related autonomic changes significantly confound traditional HRV analyses. We analyzed 43 subjects with multi-modal data including sleep-stage specific ECG, HRV...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.11682","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.11682v2","authors":"[\"Md Basit Azam\",\"Sarangthem Ibotombi Singh\"]","published":"2025-08-09T19:24:31Z","proceeding":"eess.SP","tasks":"[\"eess.SP\",\"cs.AI\",\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}