{"ID":2875935,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10501","arxiv_id":"2509.10501","title":"From Noise to Precision: A Diffusion-Driven Approach to Zero-Inflated Precipitation Prediction","abstract":"Zero-inflated data pose significant challenges in precipitation forecasting due to the predominance of zeros with sparse non-zero events. To address this, we propose the Zero Inflation Diffusion Framework (ZIDF), which integrates Gaussian perturbation for smoothing zero-inflated distributions, Transformer-based prediction for capturing temporal patterns, and diffusion-based denoising to restore the original data structure. In our experiments, we use observational precipitation data collected from South Australia along with synthetically generated zero-inflated data. Results show that ZIDF demonstrates significant performance improvements over multiple state-of-the-art precipitation forecasting models, achieving up to 56.7\\% reduction in MSE and 21.1\\% reduction in MAE relative to the baseline Non-stationary Transformer. These findings highlight ZIDF's ability to robustly handle sparse time series data and suggest its potential generalizability to other domains where zero inflation is a key challenge.","short_abstract":"Zero-inflated data pose significant challenges in precipitation forecasting due to the predominance of zeros with sparse non-zero events. To address this, we propose the Zero Inflation Diffusion Framework (ZIDF), which integrates Gaussian perturbation for smoothing zero-inflated distributions, Transformer-based predict...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10501","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.10501v1","authors":"[\"Wentao Gao\",\"Jiuyong Li\",\"Lin Liu\",\"Thuc Duy Le\",\"Xiongren Chen\",\"Xiaojing Du\",\"Jixue Liu\",\"Yanchang Zhao\",\"Yun Chen\"]","published":"2025-09-01T13:37:59Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\",\"cs.AI\"]","methods":"[\"Diffusion Model\",\"Transformer\"]","has_code":false}