{"ID":2863801,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25080","arxiv_id":"2509.25080","title":"Towards a Certificate of Trust: Task-Aware OOD Detection for Scientific AI","abstract":"Data-driven models are increasingly adopted in critical scientific fields like weather forecasting and fluid dynamics. These methods can fail on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, but detecting such failures in regression tasks is an open challenge. We propose a new OOD detection method based on estimating joint likelihoods using a score-based diffusion model. This approach considers not just the input but also the regression model's prediction, providing a task-aware reliability score. Across numerous scientific datasets, including PDE datasets, satellite imagery and brain tumor segmentation, we show that this likelihood strongly correlates with prediction error. Our work provides a foundational step towards building a verifiable 'certificate of trust', thereby offering a practical tool for assessing the trustworthiness of AI-based scientific predictions. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/bogdanraonic3/OOD_Detection_ScientificML","short_abstract":"Data-driven models are increasingly adopted in critical scientific fields like weather forecasting and fluid dynamics. These methods can fail on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, but detecting such failures in regression tasks is an open challenge. We propose a new OOD detection method based on estimating joint likelihoo...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25080","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.25080v3","authors":"[\"Bogdan Raonić\",\"Siddhartha Mishra\",\"Samuel Lanthaler\"]","published":"2025-09-29T17:21:25Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[\"Diffusion Model\"]","has_code":false,"code_links":[{"ID":609074,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_id":2863801,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25080","paper_title":"Towards a Certificate of Trust: Task-Aware OOD Detection for Scientific AI","repo_url":"https://github.com/bogdanraonic3/OOD_Detection_ScientificML","is_official":false,"mentioned_in_paper":false,"mentioned_in_github":true,"github_stars":0}]}