{"ID":2854950,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.13103","arxiv_id":"2510.13103","title":"ESI: Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification via Semantic-preserving Intervention for Large Language Models","abstract":"Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs and their invariance under semantic-preserving intervention from a causal perspective. Building on this foundation, we propose a novel grey-box uncertainty quantification method that measures the variation in model outputs before and after the semantic-preserving intervention. Through theoretical justification, we show that our method provides an effective estimate of epistemic uncertainty. Our extensive experiments, conducted across various LLMs and a variety of question-answering (QA) datasets, demonstrate that our method excels not only in terms of effectiveness but also in computational efficiency.","short_abstract":"Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs and their invariance under semantic-preserving intervention from a causal perspect...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.13103","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.13103v1","authors":"[\"Mingda Li\",\"Xinyu Li\",\"Weinan Zhang\",\"Longxuan Ma\"]","published":"2025-10-15T02:46:43Z","proceeding":"cs.CL","tasks":"[\"cs.CL\",\"cs.AI\",\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[\"Large Language Model\",\"Language Model\"]","has_code":false}