{"ID":2853418,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.16495","arxiv_id":"2510.16495","title":"Performance Evaluation of High Power Microwave Systems Against UAVs A Probabilistic Antenna Propagation Framework with Sensitivity Analysis","abstract":"We develop a probabilistic, antenna- and propagation-centric framework to quantify the effectiveness of high-power microwave (HPM) engagements against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The model couples stochastic UAV kinematics, a beam-steering jitter-to-gain mapping, and atmospheric propagation (free-space spreading with gaseous and rain loss) to obtain closed-form statistics of the received pulse energy. From these, we derive analytically evaluable per-pulse and cumulative neutralization probabilities using log-normal closures and Gaussian--Hermite quadrature, and we provide a dwell-time expression under a standard pulse-independence assumption. Analytical predictions closely match large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations across broad parameter ranges. For a representative commercial threshold $E_{\\mathrm{th}} = 10^{-2}\\,\\mathrm{J}$, the model predicts $\\bar{P}_{\\mathrm{kill}} \\gtrsim 0.4$ per pulse and $P_{\\mathrm{kill,tot}} \u003e 99\\%$ within about $0.1\\,\\mathrm{s}$ at kHz PRF; for hardened platforms with $E_{\\mathrm{th}} = 10^{-1}\\,\\mathrm{J}$, $\\bar{P}_{\\mathrm{kill}} \u003c 1\\%$ and $P_{\\mathrm{kill,tot}} \u003c 20\\%$ after $1\\,\\mathrm{s}$. A closed-form sensitivity (elasticity) analysis shows performance is dominated by slant range ($S_{\\bar{R}} \\approx -2$), with strong secondary dependence on aperture diameter and transmit power; pointing jitter and atmospheric variability are comparatively less influential in the evaluated regimes. The framework yields fast, accurate, and physics-faithful performance predictions and exposes clear antenna/propagation design levers for HPM system sizing and risk-aware mission planning.","short_abstract":"We develop a probabilistic, antenna- and propagation-centric framework to quantify the effectiveness of high-power microwave (HPM) engagements against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The model couples stochastic UAV kinematics, a beam-steering jitter-to-gain mapping, and atmospheric propagation (free-space spreading w...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.16495","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.16495v1","authors":"[\"Muhammad Khalil\",\"Ke Wang\",\"Jinho Choi\"]","published":"2025-10-18T13:31:03Z","proceeding":"eess.SP","tasks":"[\"eess.SP\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}