{"ID":2845386,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.04476","arxiv_id":"2511.04476","title":"Probabilistic Textual Time Series Depression Detection","abstract":"Accurate and interpretable predictions of depression severity are essential for clinical decision support, yet existing models often lack uncertainty estimates and temporal modeling. We propose PTTSD, a Probabilistic Textual Time Series Depression Detection framework that predicts PHQ-8 scores from utterance-level clinical interviews while modeling uncertainty over time. PTTSD includes sequence-to-sequence and sequence-to-one variants, both combining bidirectional LSTMs, self-attention, and residual connections with Gaussian or Student-t output heads trained via negative log-likelihood. Evaluated on E-DAIC and DAIC-WOZ, PTTSD achieves state-of-the-art performance among text-only systems (e.g., MAE = 3.85 on E-DAIC, 3.55 on DAIC) and produces well-calibrated prediction intervals. Ablations confirm the value of attention and probabilistic modeling, while comparisons with MentalBERT establish generality. A three-part calibration analysis and qualitative case studies further highlight the interpretability and clinical relevance of uncertainty-aware forecasting.","short_abstract":"Accurate and interpretable predictions of depression severity are essential for clinical decision support, yet existing models often lack uncertainty estimates and temporal modeling. We propose PTTSD, a Probabilistic Textual Time Series Depression Detection framework that predicts PHQ-8 scores from utterance-level clin...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.04476","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.04476v1","authors":"[\"Fabian Schmidt\",\"Seyedehmoniba Ravan\",\"Vladimir Vlassov\"]","published":"2025-11-06T15:50:33Z","proceeding":"cs.CL","tasks":"[\"cs.CL\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}