{"ID":2843722,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.06685","arxiv_id":"2511.06685","title":"Experimentation Under Non-stationary Interference","abstract":"We study the estimation of the ATE in randomized controlled trials under a dynamically evolving interference structure. This setting arises in applications such as ride-sharing, where drivers move over time, and social networks, where connections continuously form and dissolve. In particular, we focus on scenarios where outcomes exhibit spatio-temporal interference driven by a sequence of random interference graphs that evolve independently of the treatment assignment. Loosely, our main result states that a truncated Horvitz-Thompson estimator achieves an MSE that vanishes linearly in the number of spatial and time blocks, times a factor that measures the average complexity of the interference graphs. As a key technical contribution that contrasts the static setting we present a fine-grained covariance bound for each pair of space-time points that decays exponentially with the time elapsed since their last ``interaction''. Our results can be applied to many concrete settings and lead to simplified bounds, including where the interference graphs (i) are induced by moving points in a metric space, or (ii) follow a dynamic Erdos-Renyi model, where each edge is created or removed independently in each time period.","short_abstract":"We study the estimation of the ATE in randomized controlled trials under a dynamically evolving interference structure. This setting arises in applications such as ride-sharing, where drivers move over time, and social networks, where connections continuously form and dissolve. In particular, we focus on scenarios wher...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.06685","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.06685v1","authors":"[\"Su Jia\",\"Peter Frazier\",\"Nathan Kallus\",\"Christina Lee Yu\"]","published":"2025-11-10T04:10:22Z","proceeding":"math.ST","tasks":"[\"math.ST\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}