{"ID":2835675,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00203","arxiv_id":"2512.00203","title":"Beyond Expected Goals: A Probabilistic Framework for Shot Occurrences in Soccer","abstract":"Expected goals (xG) models estimate the probability that a shot results in a goal from its context (e.g., location, pressure), but they operate only on observed shots. We propose xG+, a possession-level framework that first estimates the probability that a shot occurs within the next second and its corresponding xG if it were to occur. We also introduce ways to aggregate this joint probability estimate over the course of a possession. By jointly modeling shot-taking behavior and shot quality, xG+ remedies the conditioning-on-shots limitation of standard xG. We show that this improves predictive accuracy at the team level and produces a more persistent player skill signal than standard xG models.","short_abstract":"Expected goals (xG) models estimate the probability that a shot results in a goal from its context (e.g., location, pressure), but they operate only on observed shots. We propose xG+, a possession-level framework that first estimates the probability that a shot occurs within the next second and its corresponding xG if...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00203","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.00203v2","authors":"[\"Jonathan Pipping-Gamón\",\"Tianshu Feng\",\"R. Paul Sabin\"]","published":"2025-11-28T20:59:29Z","proceeding":"stat.AP","tasks":"[\"stat.AP\",\"cs.LG\",\"eess.IV\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}