{"ID":2832398,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05402","arxiv_id":"2512.05402","title":"Smart Timing for Mining: A Deep Learning Framework for Bitcoin Hardware ROI Prediction","abstract":"Bitcoin mining hardware acquisition requires strategic timing due to volatile markets, rapid technological obsolescence, and protocol-driven revenue cycles. Despite mining's evolution into a capital-intensive industry, there is little guidance on when to purchase new Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) hardware, and no prior computational frameworks address this decision problem. We address this gap by formulating hardware acquisition as a time series classification task, predicting whether purchasing ASIC machines yields profitable (Return on Investment (ROI) \u003e= 1), marginal (0 \u003c ROI \u003c 1), or unprofitable (ROI \u003c= 0) returns within one year. We propose MineROI-Net, an open-source Transformer-based architecture designed to capture multi-scale temporal patterns in mining profitability. Evaluated on data from 20 ASIC miners released between 2015 and 2024 across diverse market regimes, MineROI-Net outperforms recurrent, convolutional, and attention-based baselines, achieving 83.2% accuracy and 83.5% macro F1-score. The model demonstrates strong economic relevance, achieving 97.8% precision in detecting unprofitable periods and 81.5% precision in detecting profitable ones, while avoiding misclassifying profitable scenarios as unprofitable and vice versa. These results indicate that MineROI-Net offers a practical, data-driven tool for timing mining hardware acquisitions, potentially reducing financial risk in capital-intensive mining operations.","short_abstract":"Bitcoin mining hardware acquisition requires strategic timing due to volatile markets, rapid technological obsolescence, and protocol-driven revenue cycles. Despite mining's evolution into a capital-intensive industry, there is little guidance on when to purchase new Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) hardw...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05402","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.05402v2","authors":"[\"Sithumi Wickramasinghe\",\"Bikramjit Das\",\"Dorien Herremans\"]","published":"2025-12-05T03:47:13Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\",\"cs.AI\",\"cs.CE\",\"cs.NE\"]","methods":"[\"Transformer\"]","has_code":false}