{"ID":2825886,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.20460","arxiv_id":"2512.20460","title":"The Aligned Economic Index \u0026 The State Switching Model","abstract":"A growing empirical literature suggests that equity-premium predictability is state dependent, with much of the forecasting power concentrated around recessionary periods (Henkel et al., 2011; Dangl and Halling, 2012; Devpura et al., 2018). I study U.S. stock return predictability across economic regimes and document strong evidence of time-varying expected returns across both expansionary and contractionary states. I contribute in two ways. First, I introduce a state-switching predictive regression in which the market state is defined in real time using the slope of the yield curve. Relative to the standard one-state predictive regression, the state-switching specification increases both in-sample and out-of-sample performance for the set of popular predictors considered by Welch and Goyal (2008), improving the out-of-sample performance of most predictors in economically meaningful ways. Second, I propose a new aggregate predictor, the Aligned Economic Index, constructed via partial least squares (PLS). Under the state-switching model, the Aligned Economic Index exhibits statistically and economically significant predictive power in sample and out of sample, and it outperforms widely used benchmark predictors and alternative predictor-combination methods.","short_abstract":"A growing empirical literature suggests that equity-premium predictability is state dependent, with much of the forecasting power concentrated around recessionary periods (Henkel et al., 2011; Dangl and Halling, 2012; Devpura et al., 2018). I study U.S. stock return predictability across economic regimes and document s...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.20460","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.20460v2","authors":"[\"Ilias Aarab\"]","published":"2025-12-23T15:55:10Z","proceeding":"q-fin.ST","tasks":"[\"q-fin.ST\",\"cs.LG\",\"econ.EM\",\"q-fin.PM\",\"stat.AP\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}