{"ID":2825691,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00820","arxiv_id":"2601.00820","title":"Environment-to-Link ISAC with Space-Weather Sensing for Ka-Band LEO Downlinks","abstract":"Ka-band low-Earth-orbit (LEO) downlinks can suffer second-scale reliability collapses during flare-driven ionospheric disturbances, where fixed fade margins and reactive adaptive coding and modulation (ACM) are either overly conservative or too slow. This paper presents a GNSS-free, link-internal predictive controller that senses the same downlink via a geometry-free dual-carrier phase observable at 10~Hz: a high-pass filter and template-based onset detector, followed by a four-state nearly-constant-velocity Kalman filter, estimate $Δ$VTEC and its rate, and a short look-ahead (60~s) yields an endpoint outage probability used as a risk gate to trigger one-step discrete MCS down-switch and pilot-time update with hysteresis. Evaluation uses physics-informed log replay driven by real GOES X-ray flare morphologies under a disjoint-day frozen-calibration protocol, with uncertainty reported via paired moving-block bootstrap. Across stressed 60~s windows, the controller reduces peak BLER by 25--30\\% and increases goodput by 0.10--0.15~bps/Hz versus no-adaptation baselines under a unified link-level abstraction. The loop runs in $\\mathcal{O}(1)$ per 0.1~s epoch (about 0.042~ms measured), making on-board implementation feasible, and scope and deployment considerations for dispersion-dominated events are discussed.","short_abstract":"Ka-band low-Earth-orbit (LEO) downlinks can suffer second-scale reliability collapses during flare-driven ionospheric disturbances, where fixed fade margins and reactive adaptive coding and modulation (ACM) are either overly conservative or too slow. This paper presents a GNSS-free, link-internal predictive controller...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00820","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.00820v1","authors":"[\"Houtianfu Wang\",\"Haofan Dong\",\"Hanlin Cai\",\"Ozgur B. Akan\"]","published":"2025-12-23T05:39:59Z","proceeding":"eess.SP","tasks":"[\"eess.SP\",\"eess.SY\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}