{"ID":2824301,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23386","arxiv_id":"2512.23386","title":"Impact of Volatility on Time-Based Transaction Ordering Policies","abstract":"We study Arbitrum's Express Lane Auction (ELA), an ahead-of-time second-price auction that grants the winner an exclusive latency advantage for one minute. Building on a single-round model with risk-averse bidders, we propose a hypothesis that the value of priority access is discounted relative to risk-neutral valuation due to the difficulty of forecasting short-horizon volatility and bidders' risk aversion. We test these predictions using ELA bid records matched to high-frequency ETH prices and find that the result is consistent with the model.","short_abstract":"We study Arbitrum's Express Lane Auction (ELA), an ahead-of-time second-price auction that grants the winner an exclusive latency advantage for one minute. Building on a single-round model with risk-averse bidders, we propose a hypothesis that the value of priority access is discounted relative to risk-neutral valuatio...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23386","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.23386v1","authors":"[\"Sunghun Ko\",\"Jinsuk Park\"]","published":"2025-12-29T11:24:08Z","proceeding":"cs.GT","tasks":"[\"cs.GT\",\"econ.EM\",\"q-fin.TR\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}