{"ID":2822958,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06129","arxiv_id":"2601.06129","title":"Graph-Based Analysis of AI-Driven Labor Market Transitions: Evidence from 10,000 Egyptian Jobs and Policy Implications","abstract":"How many workers displaced by automation can realistically transition to safer jobs? We answer this using a validated knowledge graph of 9,978 Egyptian job postings, 19,766 skill activities, and 84,346 job-skill relationships (0.74% error rate). While 20.9% of jobs face high automation risk, we find that only 24.4% of at-risk workers have viable transition pathways--defined by $\\geq$3 shared skills and $\\geq$50% skill transfer. The remaining 75.6% face a structural mobility barrier requiring comprehensive reskilling, not incremental upskilling. Among 4,534 feasible transitions, process-oriented skills emerge as the highest-leverage intervention, appearing in 15.6% of pathways. These findings challenge optimistic narratives of seamless workforce adaptation and demonstrate that emerging economies require active pathway creation, not passive skill matching.","short_abstract":"How many workers displaced by automation can realistically transition to safer jobs? We answer this using a validated knowledge graph of 9,978 Egyptian job postings, 19,766 skill activities, and 84,346 job-skill relationships (0.74% error rate). While 20.9% of jobs face high automation risk, we find that only 24.4% of...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06129","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.06129v2","authors":"[\"Ahmed Dawoud\",\"Sondos Samir\",\"Youssef Nasr\",\"Ahmed Habashy\",\"Aya Saleh\",\"Mahmoud Mohamed\",\"Osama El-Shamy\"]","published":"2026-01-04T21:19:58Z","proceeding":"cs.CY","tasks":"[\"cs.CY\",\"cs.AI\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}