{"ID":2822850,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06124","arxiv_id":"2601.06124","title":"Learning Minimally-Congested Drive Times from Sparse Open Networks: A Lightweight RF-Based Estimator for Urban Roadway Operations","abstract":"Accurate roadway travel-time prediction is foundational to transportation systems analysis, yet widespread reliance on either data-intensive congestion models or overly naïve heuristics limits scalability and practical adoption in engineering workflows. This paper develops a lightweight estimator for minimally-congested car travel times that integrates open road-network data, speed constraints, and sparse control/turn features within a random forest framework to correct bias from shortest-path traversal-time baselines. Using an urban testbed, the pipeline: (i) constructs drivable networks from volunteered geographic data; (ii) solves Dijkstra routes minimizing edge traversal time; (iii) derives sparse operational features (signals, stops, crossings, yield, roundabouts; left/right/slight/U-turn counts); and (iv) trains a regression ensemble on limited high-quality reference times to generalize predictions beyond the training set. Out-of-sample evaluation demonstrates marked improvements over traversal-time baselines across mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, mean squared error, relative bias, and explained variance, with no significant mean bias under minimally congested conditions and consistent k-fold stability indicating negligible overfitting. The resulting approach offers a practical middle ground for transportation engineering: it preserves point-to-point fidelity at metropolitan scale, reduces resource requirements, and supplies defensible performance estimates where congestion feeds are inaccessible or cost-prohibitive, supporting planning, accessibility, and network performance applications under low-traffic operating regimes.","short_abstract":"Accurate roadway travel-time prediction is foundational to transportation systems analysis, yet widespread reliance on either data-intensive congestion models or overly naïve heuristics limits scalability and practical adoption in engineering workflows. This paper develops a lightweight estimator for minimally-congeste...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06124","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.06124v1","authors":"[\"Adewumi Augustine Adepitan\",\"Christopher J. Haruna\",\"Morayo Ogunsina\",\"Damilola Olawoyin Yussuf\",\"Ayooluwatomiwa Ajiboye\"]","published":"2026-01-04T09:54:44Z","proceeding":"cs.LG","tasks":"[\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}