{"ID":2822730,"CreatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-06-01T04:54:23.091178241Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02554","arxiv_id":"2601.02554","title":"AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT","abstract":"Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more AI-exposed curricula had higher first-job pay and shorter job searches after ChatGPT. Together, these results point to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education.","short_abstract":"Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGP...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02554","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.02554v1","authors":"[\"Morgan R. Frank\",\"Alireza Javadian Sabet\",\"Lisa Simon\",\"Sarah H. Bana\",\"Renzhe Yu\"]","published":"2026-01-05T21:03:21Z","proceeding":"econ.GN","tasks":"[\"econ.GN\",\"cs.AI\",\"cs.CY\"]","methods":"[\"Large Language Model\"]","has_code":false}