{"ID":23474966,"CreatedAt":"2026-09-18T01:09:05.407443952Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-09-20T18:11:56.143995915Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19606","arxiv_id":"2609.19606","title":"Chain-of-Thought Entropy as a Reliability Signal: A Preregistered Reproduction","abstract":"This empirical study is an independent reproduction of the dissociation Zhao reported in 2026. The shape of a large language model's chain-of-thought entropy trajectory predicts whether the final answer is correct, while the magnitude of its total entropy drop does not. The dissociation merits reproduction because the magnitude half rests on a single 300-problem run with one model at one seed, while the shape half was reported at full scale on both benchmarks and on a second model family. Registered at OSF before any confirmatory run, the reproduction crosses the complete GSM8K and MATH-500 benchmark test sets with four open-weight models including one reasoning-distilled model of a kind the original did not test. The shape signal replicates. The magnitude signal divides by setting. On the anchor model the accuracy gap between monotone and non-monotone chains is +9.6 percentage points on GSM8K and +27.5 on MATH-500, while the rank correlation of the total entropy drop with correctness is -0.018 on GSM8K and +0.414 on MATH-500. On the reasoning-distilled model the binary form of the shape signal fires on about one chain in a hundred, too few to estimate the registered contrast, while the graded violation count remains predictive there. In an exploratory comparison the final-step entropy alone outperforms the binary shape flag in all eight model-by-benchmark cells by ROC area, and in six or seven by the risk-coverage area the original reports, depending on an integration range the original does not state. The study contributes a reproduction of the shape signal at full test-set scale under seven documented protocol differences, a map of the settings where the magnitude signal holds and fails, and measurements of four protocol dependencies the original does not report.","short_abstract":"This empirical study is an independent reproduction of the dissociation Zhao reported in 2026. The shape of a large language model's chain-of-thought entropy trajectory predicts whether the final answer is correct, while the magnitude of its total entropy drop does not. The dissociation merits reproduction because the...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19606","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.19606v1","authors":"[\"Theodore O. Cochran\"]","published":"2026-09-17T02:40:31Z","proceeding":"cs.CL","tasks":"[\"cs.CL\",\"cs.LG\"]","methods":"[\"Language Model\",\"LoRA\"]","has_code":false}