{"ID":22918835,"CreatedAt":"2026-09-17T01:02:08.507062015Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-09-20T18:11:56.143995915Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17939","arxiv_id":"2609.17939","title":"Recursive-Head Geometry and Order-Free Efficient Inference in Finite-State Nested Markov Models","abstract":"Exploiting the equality restrictions that nested Markov models encode requires their tangent-space geometry. For strictly positive finite-state models on arbitrary acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), we differentiate the recursive-head chart and prove that the range of its score map is the full tangent space. Intrinsic-set coordinate blocks form an algebraic direct sum, blocks of distinct districts are orthogonal, and the resulting Gram projection needs neither mb-shieldedness nor a district order. Exact counterexamples show that observational centering and kernel normalization alone do not certify tangency. For the node, complete-source edge, and compatible path-specific intervention targets considered here, boundary substitution yields a normalized configured active law and an order-free canonical-gradient formula, extended to finite mixtures by independent source redraws. A coherent one-step estimator with an exact remainder identity and a model-valid chart-flow targeted maximum likelihood estimator are efficient under stated local conditions. On a narrower source-isolated fixed-node subclass, a sequential estimator has an exact transition-factorized drift and up to $2^m$ nuisance-correctness regimes over $m$ active-district transitions; its all-correct influence function projects onto the canonical gradient, and an exact rational law exhibits a strict variance gap. These results separate order-free efficiency on arbitrary finite-state ADMGs from multiple robustness of a narrower construction.","short_abstract":"Exploiting the equality restrictions that nested Markov models encode requires their tangent-space geometry. For strictly positive finite-state models on arbitrary acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), we differentiate the recursive-head chart and prove that the range of its score map is the full tangent space. Intrin...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17939","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.17939v1","authors":"[\"Haoyu Wei\"]","published":"2026-09-15T23:56:42Z","proceeding":"math.ST","tasks":"[\"math.ST\",\"econ.EM\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}