{"ID":22918749,"CreatedAt":"2026-09-17T01:02:08.507062015Z","UpdatedAt":"2026-09-20T18:11:56.143995915Z","DeletedAt":null,"paper_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17772","arxiv_id":"2609.17772","title":"When AI Generates Covariates: Causal Typing and Estimand Drift in Sequential Experiments","abstract":"AI-generated covariates from notes, conversations, images, and wearable streams can change the causal question when their roles are left unspecified. A generated feature may represent a treatment version, pre-action state, history, design variable, mediator, outcome proxy, observation process, or intercurrent event; these roles are not interchangeable. We formulate a causal type discipline for sequential experiments: a versioned representation map, a causal role classifier, a claim-status filter, and an estimand lock. The lock fixes a standardized proximal effect before generated covariates enter the analysis. Under audit correctness and standard identification assumptions, admissible role assignments preserve this estimand. We apply the established conditional-covariance characterization of compression bias to substitution of generated representations for design-relevant states. A standardized decomposition separates compression, conditional-law, and standardization drift. Further results cover mediator adjustment, post-action leakage, marker-intervention conflation, outcome-guided discovery, and state-measurement error. Cluster-level orthogonal estimators distinguish empirical and superpopulation targets under repeated sessions and missing outcomes. Simulations show that refinement helps when it retains design-relevant information, whereas design erasure, leakage, and same-data marker selection can produce bias or undercoverage. The framework places causal semantics and claim status before confirmatory inference with generated representations.","short_abstract":"AI-generated covariates from notes, conversations, images, and wearable streams can change the causal question when their roles are left unspecified. A generated feature may represent a treatment version, pre-action state, history, design variable, mediator, outcome proxy, observation process, or intercurrent event; th...","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17772","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.17772v1","authors":"[\"Takes Fujita\",\"Nobutaka Hattori\"]","published":"2026-09-15T19:24:40Z","proceeding":"stat.ME","tasks":"[\"stat.ME\",\"cs.AI\"]","methods":"[]","has_code":false}